Profit Insights

Here's a summary of the financial news, market data, stock performance, and economic indicators from Wednesday, June 25, 2025:

**Overall Market Sentiment:**
Stock markets were mixed but generally positive on June 25, 2025, buoyed by a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which eased geopolitical concerns and led to a drop in crude oil prices. Investors were also closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony for insights into future interest rate paths. Tech stocks, in particular, continued to drive market rallies, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new record high. However, some caution remained due to mixed economic signals, including a dip in consumer confidence.

**Key Market Movements & Data:**

* **U.S. Stock Markets:**
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 1.2% (507.24 points) to close at 43,089.72.
* The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% (67.01 points) to finish at 6,092.18, nearing its record high.
* The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% (281.56 points) to end at 19,912.53, a fresh record.
* The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 11.85% to 17.48.
* Trading volume was 16.94 billion shares, lower than the 20-session average of 18.12 billion.
* Nine of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 ended in positive territory.
* Growth-oriented sectors like Information Technology and Communication Services were among the top performers.
* The Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 1.5%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) added 1.8%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) lost 1.3%.
* **Indian Stock Markets:**
* The Sensex jumped 700.40 points (0.85%) to settle at 82,755.51.
* The NSE Nifty climbed 200.40 points (0.80%) to 25,244.75.
* **Crude Oil:**
* U.S. crude oil prices fell 6%, and Brent dropped 6.1% (below $70 per barrel), marking an almost 15% drop from the previous week's high, due to the ceasefire news.
* **Currencies:**
* The US dollar fell to 1.16 against the euro.
* The Indian Rupee fell 2 paise to close at 86.07 against the US dollar.
* **Bonds:**
* US Treasury yields fell following remarks from Fed Chair Powell suggesting potential earlier rate cuts if inflation rose less than expected.
* The 10-year Treasury yield closed just below the 4.3% mark, while the 2-year yield edged lower to 3.77%.

**Company Earnings & Corporate News:**

* **Micron Technology (MU):** Reported record revenue in its fiscal third quarter, driven by strong DRAM and HBM revenue, with data center revenue more than doubling year-over-year. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share. Several companies were expected to report earnings after hours on June 25, including Micron.
* **FedEx (FDX):** The stock was weighed down by a weak outlook, as the company declined to provide a full-year sales or profit forecast due to uncertainty from trade tensions, particularly impacting US-China shipments.
* **General Mills (GIS):** Reported a 3% decrease in net sales for the fourth quarter. Full-year net sales were $19.5 billion, down 2%.
* **Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD):** Announced net earnings of $439.4 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.
* **Crown Crafts (CRWS):** Announced Q4 2025 earnings, with net sales rising 2.9% year-over-year to $23.2 million. However, the company reported a GAAP net loss for the fourth quarter due to a goodwill impairment charge.
* **Nvidia (NVDA):** Investors awaited the Nvidia shareholder meeting as the stock neared a record high.
* **Airline Stocks:** Shares of United Airlines and American Airlines jumped as oil prices cooled.

**Economic Indicators & Trends:**

* **U.S. Consumer Confidence:** The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell to 93 in June, down from May's reading of 98 and below analysts' forecasts. The labor market differential narrowed to its smallest since March 2021, indicating growing concerns about the job market.
* **U.S. Home Sales & Prices:**
* New home sales for May came in below expectations, adding to signs of potentially softening housing market conditions. Analysts expected May new home sales to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000, down from 743,000 in April. The U.S. Census Bureau released data on New Single-Family Houses Sold on June 25th.
* The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index increased 3.4% in April, slowing from the previous month and missing consensus estimates.
* **German IFO Business Climate Index:** Rose to 88.4 in June.
* **Federal Reserve:**
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress, indicating the central bank is monitoring data before making policy adjustments and signaled flexibility on rates if inflation remains contained despite tariffs.
* The FOMC's June meeting maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% and continued to project two rate cuts in the year.
* **Inflation:** Investors awaited the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for May, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. Expectations were for headline PCE to rise 0.1% month-over-month.
* **U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts:** May 2025 data was released: Building Completions at 1,526 Ths. (SAAR), Residential Building Permits at 1,394 Ths. # (SAAR), and Residential Housing Starts at 1,256 Ths. # (SAAR).
* **U.S. Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity (IDEA):** Last updated on June 25, 2025.
* **Preliminary U.S. Imports for Consumption of Steel Products for May 2025** were scheduled for release.

**Financial Trends:**

* **Tech Stock Leadership:** Technology stocks, particularly those related to AI like Nvidia, continued to be major drivers of the market rally.
* **Geopolitical Impact:** The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran significantly boosted risk appetite and impacted oil prices and global stocks.
* **Focus on Inflation and Fed Policy:** Inflation data and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remained key focuses for investors.
* **Housing Market Softening:** Data on home sales and prices suggested a potential cooling in the U.S. housing market.
* **International Equities Performance:** International developed large-cap stocks were noted as top performers in the first half of 2025.

**Sources:**
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