Profit Insights

### U.S. Markets and Employment Data
On Thursday, July 3 (the last trading day before the U.S. holiday), U.S. equities rallied on the back of a surprisingly strong June jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 344.11 points, or 0.77%, to close at 44,828.53; the S&P 500 climbed 0.83% to finish at 6,279.35; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.02% to end at 20,601.10 turn0search12). Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June versus economists’ expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from a projected 4.3% (turn0search12). These data underscored continuing resilience in the U.S. labor market and helped fuel optimism about the economy’s capacity to withstand mounting global trade tensions and shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations (turn1view0).

### Global Market Movements on July 4
With U.S. markets closed on Friday, July 4 for Independence Day, global trading focused on futures, currencies, bonds and commodities. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.6% as attention turned to fiscal and trade developments in Washington (turn1view0). The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 96.94 against a basket of major currencies, reversing some of the previous session’s gains and reflecting caution around the impact of President Trump’s recent megabill and upcoming tariff deadlines (turn1view0). In the Treasury market, holiday-thinned liquidity coincided with a sell-off: 10-year yields rose 4.7 bps to 4.34% and two-year yields jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882%, the former’s highest closing level since mid-June (turn1view0). Precious metals benefited from the risk-off tone, with gold firming 0.4% to $3,336 per ounce, while energy markets saw Brent crude ease to $68.23 a barrel and WTI to $66.34 (turn1view0).

### European Equities and Currencies
European stock markets ended July 4 in the red amid growing concerns over a looming U.S. tariff deadline and uneven corporate data. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.5%, led by losses in banks, mining stocks and retailers (turn1view0). Regionally, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat, France’s CAC 40 slid 0.8%, and Germany’s DAX dropped 0.6% as export-oriented sectors braced for potential tariffs (turn3search6). The British pound gave up earlier gains after a Bank of England official signaled that a more aggressive schedule of interest-rate cuts might be appropriate later in the year (turn3search6). Meanwhile, policy watchers noted that German industrial orders slumped 1.4% month-on-month in May, well below the 0.1% decline analysts had forecast, though orders remained 5.3% higher year-over-year—a mixed signal on manufacturing health (turn5search3).

### Asia-Pacific Market Snapshot
Asian equities reacted to both U.S. tariff risks and domestic economic surprises on July 4. South Korea’s KOSPI retreated 1.99%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.77%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 eked out a 0.09% gain despite growing trade tensions (turn4view0). Currency markets saw the U.S. dollar index edge down 0.1% to 96.93, trimming a recent rally as markets awaited clarity on negotiations with key trading partners (turn4view0). In macro data, Japan reported a sharp rebound in household spending for May—up 4.7% year-on-year (versus a 1.3% forecast) and 4.6% month-on-month (0.4% forecast)—pointing to stronger domestic consumption ahead of the Olympics (turn4view0). Commodities also moved: spot gold climbed 0.4% to $3,340.79 per ounce amid safe-haven demand, while Brent crude futures dipped 0.32% to $68.58 and U.S. crude fell 0.18% to $66.88 on prospects of increased OPEC+ output (turn4view0).

### Key Economic Indicators
On July 4, euro-area statistics showed ongoing disinflationary pressures at the factory gate. Eurozone producer price inflation (PPI) fell 0.6% month-on-month in May, exceeding expectations of a 0.5% drop, with energy prices down 2.1% and core PPI up modestly by 0.1%. On an annual basis, PPI eased to 0.3% from 0.7%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain subdued (turn6search3). In Germany, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that real new orders in manufacturing declined 1.4% in May after seasonal adjustment—driven by a 17.7% plunge in orders for computer, electronic and optical products—but overall orders were 5.3% higher than a year earlier, suggesting selective strength amid uneven demand (turn5search3). These data set the stage for the European Central Bank’s upcoming deliberations on policy amid diverging signals from core and peripheral economies.

### Trade Policy and Oil Outlook
Trade tensions again took center stage on July 4 as President Trump announced that letters outlining fresh tariff rates would be sent to 10–12 countries later in the day, marking a shift away from bilateral deals before the July 9 deadline when tariffs could spike sharply (turn0news7). Investors are bracing for the fallout, particularly in export-dependent Asian and European markets. Meanwhile, energy markets are focused on OPEC+’s meeting on Saturday, where sources indicate the group may accelerate output hikes for August beyond the previously agreed 411,000 bpd, applying downward pressure on crude prices despite geopolitical risks (turn7news8). The confluence of trade policy shifts and potential supply increases underscores a volatile near-term outlook for oil.