Profit Insights
Hosted by Dusty
About This Episode
Generated finance podcast with host Dusty based on prompt: Finance and economic news from yesterday and today
Transcript
Welcome to "Profit Insights," I'm Dusty, your guide through the noise of the financial world.
We had a holiday-shortened session last Thursday, but that didn’t stop the markets from soaring to new heights. The S&P 500 jumped to 6,279.35, up 0.83%, setting an all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite wasn't left behind, rising 1.02% to close at 20,601.10. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones added 344 points, closing at its best for the week at 44,828.53.
The spark? A stronger-than-expected jobs report. Employers added 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 110,000. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, igniting optimism about economic growth and consumer spending.
Yet, while equities were painting a rosy picture, Treasury yields crept up. The 10-year note yield moved toward four-month highs as investors weigh the Fed's future rate cuts against inflation pressures.
On to the holiday break, U.S. markets took a pause for Independence Day. But globally, there were varied movements. In Asia, the Nikkei held steady, while South Korea's Kospi fell sharply by almost 2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dipped as markets digested tariff deadline concerns.
Europe wasn't immune to jitters either. The STOXX 600 fell as traders eyed U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks, especially after recent shifts in Russia's nuclear doctrine. Defensive sectors like utilities proved more resilient in this cautious climate.
Over the weekend, there were interesting developments—Japan saw its biggest wage hike in 34 years, potentially boosting consumer spending. In Europe, inflation numbers confirmed stubborn price pressures, aligning with a cautious "wait-and-see" approach from the European Central Bank.
Commodities stayed relatively calm. Oil prices hovered around $68 per barrel amid balanced economic data and looming tariff uncertainties. OPEC+ plans an output increase in August, aiming for stability in supply and demand dynamics.
Looking ahead to today, U.S. stock futures are buzzing with anticipation. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all pointing upward, driven by major tech gains. Meanwhile, Trump Media's big news about a crypto fundraising plan pushed their stock significantly higher.
Key economic data this week will guide the Fed's next moves. Consumer Confidence reports, Fed meeting minutes, and PCE inflation are on the radar, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urging steadiness on rates until tariff impacts clarify.
We're also watching the Dallas Fed's business activity index. May showed surprising weaknesses, and today's update will be crucial for regional insights. Corporate earnings are in focus too, with Nvidia leading the headlines on the tech front this week.
As we enter the second half of 2025, the markets are strong, buoyed by robust labor data and record equity levels. However, uncertainties in trade, Fed policies, and global growth continue to linger, challenging investors to navigate these turbulent waters.
Thanks for tuning in. I'm Dusty, reminding you of this: when the dust settles, only the truth remains. Stay informed and make smart choices. Until next time.
**U.S. Markets Recap (Thursday, July 3, 2025)**
Thursday marked a holiday-shortened session ahead of Independence Day, but investors still managed to drive major U.S. benchmarks to record territory on robust economic data. The S&P 500 climbed 0.83% to 6,279.35, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.02% to 20,601.10—both closing at fresh all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 344.11 points, or 0.77%, to 44,828.53, its strongest finish of the week ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
The catalyst was a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for June, which showed employers added 147,000 jobs—well above economists’ forecasts of 110,000—and pushed the unemployment rate down unexpectedly to 4.1% from 4.3% ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). This data underpinning labor market resilience fueled optimism that consumer spending and economic growth will remain solid, even as the Federal Reserve debates the timing of future rate cuts.
Despite the buoyant equities performance, Treasury yields ticked higher: the 10-year note yield rose toward four-month highs, reflecting a recalibration of rate-cut expectations. Equities and bonds diverged as investors balanced the prospect of continued Fed patience against the risk of sustained inflationary pressure.
**Market Holiday and Global Trading (July 4–6, 2025)**
U.S. equity and bond markets were closed on Friday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day, with early closures on Thursday at 1 p.m. ET (bonds at 2 p.m.) ([marketwatch.com](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-open-on-the-fourth-of-july-and-will-it-close-early-on-july-3-what-about-fedex-ups-and-mail-delivery-26eaf161?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). Over the long weekend, Asian markets had already priced in U.S. developments: Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat on Friday, while South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 1.99% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.64% amid concerns over impending tariff deadlines and mixed local economic cues ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/04/asia-stock-markets-today-live-updates-nikkei-225-asx-200-kospi-hang-seng-csi-300-senxex-nifty-50.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
On Thursday, Europe’s STOXX 600 ticked down 0.88% as traders awaited clarity on U.S. trade policy and assessed geopolitical risks, particularly rising tensions between Russia and the U.S. after President Putin’s amendment to Russia’s nuclear doctrine ([nbclosangeles.com](https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/european-markets-head-for-higher-open-as-traders-focus-on-data-earnings/3563838/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). The pan-European CAC 40, DAX, and FTSE 100 all finished lower, reflecting a cautious tone heading into the U.S. holiday. Commodity-linked and financial sectors underperformed, while defensive names such as utilities and consumer staples held up better.
**Corporate and Economic Developments Over the Weekend**
Several scheduled corporate releases and economic indicators kept analysts busy over the weekend, despite the holiday lull. In Japan, the largest union federation, Rengo, reported wage settlements averaging a 5.25% increase—marking the biggest pay hike in 34 years—as companies grapple with persistent inflation and labor shortages ([klse.i3investor.com](https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/taresearch/2025-07-04-story-h499601270-Daily_Brief_4_Jul_2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). This breakthrough in wage growth has the potential to bolster Japanese consumer spending, which has been tepid despite corporate profit gains.
On the European front, Eurostat confirmed that annual inflation in the euro zone for June held at 2.0%, in line with the preliminary reading. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy components, ran at 2.7%, also matching flash estimates ([nbclosangeles.com](https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/european-markets-head-for-higher-open-as-traders-focus-on-data-earnings/3563838/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). The data cement the European Central Bank’s “wait-and-see” stance on further rate moves, as underlying price pressures remain stubbornly above target.
**Commodities Snapshot**
Oil markets saw muted activity over the holiday period. Brent crude futures were little changed at $68.81 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged up to $67.03—reflecting investors’ balanced outlook amid firm U.S. labor data and uncertainty over President Trump’s upcoming tariff letters to 10 trading partners, which could range from 20% to 30% on imported goods ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/04/oil-prices-steady-on-solid-job-market-tariff-uncertainty.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). OPEC+ delegates signaled plans to increase supply by 411,000 bpd in August, aiming to regain market share and offset any demand weakness ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/04/oil-prices-steady-on-solid-job-market-tariff-uncertainty.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll of 40 analysts raised its forecast for average Brent prices in 2025 to $67.86 per barrel—up from $66.98—citing short-term geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East. However, the poll highlighted that structural supply growth from non-OPEC producers, projected at 1 million bpd annually through 2025 and 2026, and a downgraded global demand growth forecast of 730,000 bpd this year pose downward risks to prices ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/geopolitical-tensions-nudge-oil-outlook-higher-demand-concerns-persist-2025-06-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). Morgan Stanley’s commodity research team went further, forecasting Brent could slip to around $60 per barrel by early 2026 amid well-supplied markets and fading geopolitical jitters ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/morgan-stanley-sees-brent-60bbl-by-early-next-year-2025-06-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
**Looking Ahead: Premarket Signals and Economic Calendar (Monday, July 7)**
As markets reopen today (Monday, July 7), U.S. stock futures jumped sharply, signaling a risk-on start after the long weekend. At 4:33 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 526 points (1.26%), S&P 500 E-minis rose 1.47%, and Nasdaq-100 E-minis advanced 1.65%, with major tech names leading gains—Apple +1.9%, Alphabet +2.3%, Tesla +2.5%, and Nvidia +2.8% ([tradingview.com](https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com%2C2025%3Anewsml_L3N3RZ0HR%3A0-us-stock-futures-rally-after-long-weekend-on-trade-reprieve/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). Trump Media & Technology Group surged 10.3% after reports of a planned $3 billion cryptocurrency fundraise.
Key economic releases this week will shape Fed rate-cut expectations. Today brings the May Consumer Confidence report, followed by the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation for May—Chair Powell’s preferred gauge—and the second estimate of Q1 GDP are due later this week, along with the July 2 JOLTS job openings report. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has already emphasized the need to hold rates steady until the full impact of tariffs on inflation is evident ([tradingview.com](https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com%2C2025%3Anewsml_L3N3RZ0HR%3A0-us-stock-futures-rally-after-long-weekend-on-trade-reprieve/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
**Regional Fed Surveys and Business Conditions**
Also on tap today is the Dallas Fed’s July business-activity index, which for May showed conditions worsened more than expected, falling to –19.4 from –14.4 in April and missing the –15 consensus forecast. Prices-paid and prices-received measures diverged, suggesting mixed inflation pressures, while the employment gauge dipped to –5.3, underscoring continued slack in the region’s job market ([nbcnewyork.com](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/stock-futures-open-higher-to-kick-off-shortened-trading-week-live-updates/5451684/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
**Corporate Earnings Calendar**
Investors will also track key earnings releases this week. Nvidia is slated to report Q2 results after markets close on Wednesday, a highly anticipated event given its pivotal role in the AI chip market. Tesla, Microsoft, and several major financial institutions follow in the days thereafter. Market positioning ahead of these reports is likely to contribute to elevated volatility, especially in tech and semiconductor sectors.
In sum, U.S. markets enter the second half of 2025 on a strong footing, buoyed by solid labor-market data, record‐high equity benchmarks, and accommodative central bank rhetoric. However, trade policy uncertainty, evolving Fed guidance, and mixed global growth signals will test investor resolve in the coming sessions.
More Episodes from Profit Insights
Profit Insights
July 20, 2025
Profit Insights
July 19, 2025