Tesla Stock Daily Drive

July 04, 2025 • Finance

Hosted by Dusty

About This Episode

Generated finance podcast with host Dusty based on prompt: Daily stock movements for Tesla. Focus on the stock, but provide any important background information that is necessary.

Transcript

Welcome to "Tesla Stock Daily Drive," where we dive into the latest market movements with a calm and thoughtful approach. I’m your host, Dusty, and today we’re unpacking Tesla’s performance during the July 3 session. Let’s get rolling.

Yesterday, Tesla closed at $315.05, slipping slightly by 0.19% from the previous day’s $315.65. During this holiday-shortened session, the stock danced between $312.79 and $319.14. We saw about 56.6 million shares traded—quite below the usual excitement of 120 million. This slowdown reflects an intriguing tale of market pressure throughout the first half of 2025.

Now, taking a step back, Tesla began July with an average opening of $298.46, peaking at $318.45 and dipping as low as $293.21. While the stock shows some spark at $315.05, it currently lingers near the lower quartile of its 52-week range of $214.25 to $367.71.

Tesla remains a titan in the electric vehicle world, part of the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 Growth Index. Despite recent dips, with 3.22 billion shares outstanding and a market cap holding strong above $1 trillion, they’re still a megacap giant navigating choppy waters.

What drove the market on July 3? Tesla’s Q2 deliveries report stole the spotlight. They delivered 384,122 vehicles, a 14% drop from last year, with production slightly under expectations. Yet, investors were bracing for worse, which prompted a rally in premarket trading, cooling off later as the day went on.

Turning to options, there was a noticeable bearish tilt. The $320 put option was the favorite, revealing protective moves or bearish bets. With retail traders making up a big slice of this activity, it seems there’s a cautious sentiment hanging over Tesla’s recent rebound efforts.

The holiday dynamics played their part. With early closures due to Independence Day, trading was noticeably lighter, increasing volatility. This is typical for a holiday session, highlighting how these dynamics can tighten market movement and liquidity.

Zooming out to the broader market, major U.S. indices closed higher. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all marked gains, buoyed by strong jobs data and decreasing unemployment—lifting spirits and offsetting trade policy concerns.

Looking ahead, we’ve got several catalysts on the horizon. Tesla's Q2 earnings on July 23 will be pivotal, shedding light on Model Y plans and FSD expansions. Global auto-sales updates from China and Europe will be critical, especially with competition heating up. Plus, upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed commentary could sway rate-cut expectations and tech-stock valuations.

For investors, the big question is whether Tesla can harness the positive momentum or if profit-taking and sector rotation will drag it back. As options expiry approaches on July 18, expect some interesting ripples in market dynamics.

That’s your forecast for today’s Tesla Stock Daily Drive. Keep your eyes on the road and your mind open. And remember, when the dust settles, only the truth remains. Thanks for tuning in, and until next time, take care.

## Market Recap: Tesla’s July 3 Session

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at $315.05 on Thursday, July 3, 2025, a decline of 0.19% from the prior session’s $315.65 close. During the truncated trading day, the stock traded in a $312.79–$319.14 range—a 2.03% intraday swing—on a volume of 56,562,391 shares, well below its average of roughly 120 million shares in recent sessions ([stockinvest.us](https://stockinvest.us/stock-price/TSLA?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). In comparison to its 52-week range of $214.25–$367.71, Thursday’s close positioned TSLA near the lower quartile, reflecting persistent downward pressure throughout H1 2025 ([stockinvest.us](https://stockinvest.us/stock-price/TSLA?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [macrotrends.net](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/stock-price-history?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).

## Month-to-Date and Year-to-Date Context

Through the first three trading days of July, TSLA has opened at an average of $298.46, hit a month-to-date high of $318.45 and a low of $293.21. The July 2025 month-to-date close of $315.05 places the stock near the top of this narrow range ([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/tsla-stock-price-historical?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). Year-to-date, Tesla shares have averaged a closing price of $316.87, representing a 19.1% decline from the January 1 opening level, underscoring the stock’s underperformance relative to major market indices ([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/tesla-average-stock-closing-price-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).

## Company Profile and Market Capitalization

Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and energy storage products globally. Listed on the NASDAQ, it is a constituent of both the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Growth Index. As of July 2, 2025, Tesla had 3.22096 billion shares outstanding and a market capitalization of approximately $1.0167 trillion. Based on the July 3 closing price of $315.05, the market cap remained above the $1 trillion threshold, reflecting the company’s megacap status despite recent share-price pressures ([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/tsla-historical-market-cap-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [macrotrends.net](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/stock-price-history?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).

## Key Drivers of July 3 Price Action

The primary near-term catalyst for Tesla’s stock movement has been its Q2 2025 deliveries report, released July 2. Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2—a 14% year-over-year decline—and produced 410,244 units, slightly below consensus expectations of 387,000 planned deliveries. Investors had braced for a steeper drop, and shares rallied 4.8% in premarket trading on Wednesday before settling into modest gains that carried into Thursday’s session ([teslarati.com](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-crosses-ytd-high-ath-q4-model-3-delivery-results/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [webull.com](https://www.webull.com/news/13091162277569536?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). Despite the relief rally, the stock was unable to sustain an additional upswing amid broader market rotation and the holiday-shortened session.

## Options Flow and Investor Sentiment

Option activity on July 3 highlighted a bearish hedging tilt. Tesla’s July 3, 2025 $320 put option was the busiest contract of the session, with 14,127 contracts traded—5.2% of the day’s total TSLA options volume. Notably, 56.7% of the put contracts were bought to open, indicating downside protection or speculative bearish bets, with retail traders accounting for 86% of the activity. At the time of the data cut, the underlying TSLA stock was down $2.70, or 0.83%, to $320.93, suggesting that option traders were bracing for further weakness despite the stock’s recent rebound attempts ([marketchameleon.com](https://marketchameleon.com/articles/b/2025/6/30/tsla-july-320-put-sees-14127-contracts-traded-with-implied-volatility-dropping-3-4-percent?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [stockinvest.us](https://stockinvest.us/stock-price/TSLA?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).

## Holiday-Induced Trading Dynamics

Trading on July 3 occurred under a holiday-shortened schedule, with U.S. equity markets closing at 1:00 p.m. ET ahead of Independence Day. Bond markets closed at 2:00 p.m. ET, and all markets were fully closed on July 4. This abbreviated session often leads to lighter volume and wider bid-ask spreads, constraining large institutional flows and amplifying intraday volatility as market makers adjust risk exposure before the holiday break ([marketwatch.com](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-open-on-the-fourth-of-july-and-will-it-close-early-on-july-3-what-about-fedex-ups-and-mail-delivery-26eaf161?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [kiplinger.com](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/is-the-stock-market-open-on-july-4th?utm_source=chatgpt.com)). The 56.6 million share volume in Tesla was roughly half of its pre-holiday average, underscoring the impact of the early close on liquidity.

## Broader Market Backdrop

Despite the compressed trading hours, major U.S. indices closed higher on July 3. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.02% to a new record close of 20,601.10, led by technology stocks, while the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 6,280.30 (another record), and the Russell 2000 small-cap index gained 0.85%. Banks and bond dealers noted that exceptionally strong June jobs data—147,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%—underpinned the rally, offsetting concerns over trade policy and raising Treasury yields amid recalibrated Fed rate-cut expectations ([historicaloptiondata.com](https://historicaloptiondata.com/holiday-closing-bell-report-thursday-july-3rd-2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).

## Outlook: Holiday Hangover and Upcoming Catalysts

With markets closed on July 4 and limited economic data in the holiday window, attention turns to the post-holiday session for signs of sustained follow-through. Key catalysts include:

- Q2 2025 earnings season, where Tesla will report full financials on July 23 and host an earnings call at 4:30 p.m. CT, likely to address Model Y ramp plans and FSD expansion ([teslarati.com](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-crosses-ytd-high-ath-q4-model-3-delivery-results/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).
- Global auto-sales updates, particularly from China and Europe, where Tesla faces intensifying competition and potential trade-policy headwinds.
- U.S. inflation data and Fed commentary, which will shape rate-cut expectations and tech-stock valuations into Q3.
- Option-expiration flows and volatility trends ahead of the July 18 monthly expiry, which could exacerbate swings in high-beta shares like TSLA.

Investors will be watching whether Tesla can leverage delivery news and positive macro sentiment to reclaim momentum or if profit-taking pressure will reassert itself, especially if broader market rotation away from growth resumes.

Tesla Stock Daily Drive