Tesla Stock Daily Drive

## Market Overview
On Friday, October 3, 2025, broader U.S. markets exhibited a mix of record highs and pockets of weakness amid a third day of the federal government shutdown. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed at new highs as hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts gained traction following weak Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data and a delayed September jobs report. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite inched lower, weighed down by technology shares—including Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Applied Materials—reflecting profit‐taking and sector rotation ([barrons.com](https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-deliveries-musk-pay-9d256496?utm_source=openai)).

## Tesla Daily Price Action (Oct 3, 2025)
Tesla shares swung sharply through the session. In early trading, TSLA extended Thursday’s 5.1% loss, slipping as much as 1.6% to a session low near $429.00. Buoyed by bargain‐hunting and optimism around pending catalysts, the stock reversed course in the afternoon, rallying to a close of $442.35—up 1.5% on the day. This intraday rebound followed the prior day’s sell‐off and capped a volatile two‐day stretch for the EV maker ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai)).


Key price points for Oct. 3:
- Intraday low: ~$429.00 ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai))
- Intraday high: ~$445.00 ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wall-street-futures-climb-final-session-volatile-week-2025-10-03/?utm_source=openai))
- Closing price: $442.35, +1.5% ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wall-street-futures-climb-final-session-volatile-week-2025-10-03/?utm_source=openai))

Despite yesterday’s strength, TSLA remains down roughly 25% year-to-date, underperforming peers like Nvidia and Apple, which have seen YTD gains of approximately 67% and 20%, respectively ([tradingview.com](https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates%3A64424097e094b%3A0-why-tesla-stock-is-down-tsla-price-falls-for-five-consecutive-days-reaching-november-lows/?utm_source=openai)).

## Technical Indicators and Chart Patterns
Technicians note that Thursday’s steep decline formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, signaling short‐term exhaustion of the Q3 rally. Still, TSLA’s late‐session recovery carried the stock back above its 50-day moving average near $361—a level that has acted as dynamic support since mid‐September ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wall-street-futures-climb-final-session-volatile-week-2025-10-03/?utm_source=openai)).
- Support levels:
• $367 (ascending triangle top) ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai))
• $292 (longer‐term horizontal base) ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai))
- Resistance levels:
• $489 (December all-time high) ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai))
• $660.60 (projected measured‐move target) ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai))

A decisive break above $489 could usher in new highs, while a failure to hold $367 may open the door to deeper retracements.

## Drivers Behind the Moves
1. **Record Q3 Deliveries vs. Pulled-Forward Demand**
Tesla reported a record 497,099 vehicle deliveries in Q3, driven in part by a surge of U.S. buyers rushing to claim the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit at month-end. While the headline beat bolstered optimism, investors fretted that much demand was simply shifted forward from later quarters, potentially setting the stage for softer deliveries in Q4 and early 2026 ([investors.com](https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-deliveries-expiring-ev-tax-credits/?utm_source=openai)).

2. **Governance and Pay Package Concerns**
A public letter from the New York City Comptroller criticized Tesla’s board and governance practices, urging shareholders to oppose CEO Elon Musk’s performance-based compensation plan—an unprecedented package that could total up to $1 trillion if all metrics are met. Such scrutiny has injected fresh uncertainty into TSLA shares, especially ahead of the upcoming shareholder vote ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wall-street-futures-climb-final-session-volatile-week-2025-10-03/?utm_source=openai)).

3. **Profit-Taking Post-Rally**
After TSLA soared nearly 40% through Q3—outpacing the “Magnificent Seven” cohort—some investors locked in gains, contributing to the sell-off on Thursday and the early weakness seen Friday morning ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai)).

## Options Market Activity
Options traders positioned for both upside and downside moves:
- The Oct. 3 $440 put surged in volume, with 20,597 contracts traded—about 6.2% of total TSLA option volume—with implied volatility falling 6% from the prior close. Notably, retail traders accounted for 81% of those contracts, suggesting widespread hedging or speculative bearish bets ([marketchameleon.com](https://marketchameleon.com/articles/b/2025/9/30/tsla-20597-oct-2025-440-put-retail-dominates-implied-volatility-drops?utm_source=openai)).
- On the call side, the Oct. 3 $450 strike led activity, exchanging 3,973 contracts at a VWAP of $7.69, reflecting cautious bullish positioning ahead of the quarter-end earnings report ([marketchameleon.com](https://marketchameleon.com/articles/b/2025/10/1/tsla-october-2025-450-call-dominates-options-3973-contracts-vwap-769-buyer-flow?utm_source=openai)).

## Macro Context
Friday’s mixed sector performance unfolded against the backdrop of a third consecutive day of the U.S. government shutdown, which delayed the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls. Investors leaned on weak manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management as further justification for expected Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December. Despite shutdown-induced data lags, market breadth was strong, with advancers outnumbering decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, and overall volume across major exchanges reached 20.47 billion shares—above April’s daily average ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wall-street-futures-climb-final-session-volatile-week-2025-10-03/?utm_source=openai)).

## Outlook and Analyst Commentary
Looking ahead, TSLA’s next major catalyst is its Q3 earnings and conference call slated for October 22. Analysts will closely examine margins, guidance around the upcoming lower-cost “Model 2,” and updates on Full Self-Driving Version 14, which could reignite excitement around Tesla’s autonomous technology roadmap.
- Bullish perspective: Breakout above $489 could spark a measured move into the $600–$700 range, underpinned by renewed momentum and positive FSD developments ([investopedia.com](https://www.investopedia.com/watch-these-tesla-price-levels-as-stock-shifts-gear-after-soaring-in-3rd-quarter-11823691?utm_source=openai)).
- Bearish perspective: High valuation (trading near 175× estimated 2026 earnings), intensifying competition from traditional automakers and Chinese rivals, and waning U.S. incentives may cap upside and leave TSLA vulnerable to further pullbacks ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wall-street-futures-climb-final-session-volatile-week-2025-10-03/?utm_source=openai)).

Investors will also watch broader Fed decisions and the progress of the government shutdown, any continuation of which could further cloud economic data flows and market sentiment heading into year-end.